After peaking at the top of its wedge
formation, crude oil appears to be in a decline mode, finding certain buyers at
the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Thanks to bullish predictions for oil demand and the renewal of the OPEC+
output accord, the rise has held for the past few of months. The commodity
appears to be rising once more as a result of geopolitical tensions in Russia
that flared up early this week.
around these prices, a resurgence of positive pressure should be sufficient to
get the commodity back on track to target the highs around $83.16 per barrel
close to R1.
However, a more significant drop might
trigger a decline below the 50% Fib around the big psychological threshold of
$80 per barrel, which might be a more alluring entry position for oil bulls.
The 200 SMA dynamic inflection point is closer to the wedge's bottom, whilst
the 100 SMA dynamic support aligns with the 50% Fib to strengthen its
floor-like qualities. However, a break below this region might indicate a wedge
breakdown and the beginning of a reversal.
Watch for a move below S2 ($78.63 per barrel), in particular, since this might
signal the start of a decline that matches the height of the chart pattern.


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